Definition of a Crisis according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary: a: an unstable or crucial time or state of affairs in which a decisive change is impending; especially : one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome b: a situation that has reached a critical phase.
The instability and pressure inherent during a crisis situation invokes a feeling of unpredictability and uncertainty about the future. But if you bend the ear of someone that has been through many crises before, it turns out that there are some consistencies. As we’ve reflected back on the crises before, patterns emerge. These patterns are not certain, of course, but happen often enough that we can expect they will likely occur again. This can help with planning for and navigating the crisis that happens tomorrow. (For a shorter version of this model, see Predictable Patterns During a Crisis.)
The First 48 Hours
Zero hour. Every crisis starts with a moment in time when something bad and often unexpected suddenly occurs. From that moment on, the crisis has begun. It may be a threat to safety, a leak of information, a natural disaster, or anything else that has the potential to change the face of your business.
Frenzy. Once a crisis happens, there will be a frenzy of activity for a handful of hours. This is the time when those who problem solve, jump in to start helping in any way they can. Those who melt down begin the descent. Those who lead, take charge to gather information, bring people together, and create an organized process to give roles. When someone is teetering on the edge of hypothermia, it is helpful for them to perform a task, such as building a fire. Similarly, when leaders assign tasks and create order, it prevents the frenzy and creates productive behavior.
Balloon. Information comes in bit by bit, until it begins to unveil the full magnitude of the situation. Not every detail will be in yet, but enough to know the situation is bad. This is when a good leader begins the escalation. This is when a crisis plan should begin being implemented.
Climax. This is when the realization of the situation sets in – up until now everyone has been too busy running around to really let the news sink in. The media or others have started talking about it and your company name is in the headlines. The phones are ringing off the hook. Your CEO and executives are in the room asking what you are doing. As the phrase goes, it just got real. If you are handling the situation well, this is a crisis leader’s time to shine – and to hold your ground. Don’t let others, even those above you, derail your team from the plan. Especially if they are a seasoned, well practiced team.
A twist. Information that was previously thought to be confirmed changes. Some details change significantly and it means that information previously shared with internal or external partners was incorrect and needs to be fixed. For example, there were twelve deaths confirmed and now there are actually only ten – or fourteen. This doesn’t always happen, but it’s common enough to plan on it. Remember this when sharing information out earlier in a crisis – include a note that details are still coming in and changing frequently. A crisis communications strategy that plans for corrections makes this much easier.
Turning Point. It is typically around 48 hours into the crisis that there is a physical feeling of relief that seems to fill the air. The news cycle has slowed down. Some good news comes in – or at least the bad news has stopped and the situation seems to have a light at the end of the tunnel. The response team is tired, but this stage will fill others with hope and energy.
Secondary crises. This is a common phenomenon. The only thing unsure about it is when it will happen – it could be during any stage of a crisis. Something else will pop up that is unrelated to the original crisis, but adds to the complexity. Within hours of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, dozens of questionable websites had been registered, some apparently to collect fake donations for the victims, and the FBI warned the public about them.
After 48 Hours
De-escalation. Whether the incident comes to an end, or crisis-mode just becomes the new normal, the situation normalizes. Usually within a week, but could stretch longer. There may still be small spikes in concern or needs that crop up, but nothing like the first two days.
A crisis can happen at any moment. Knowing what to expect and practicing potential scenarios is the best way to prepare leaders and teams. Our guide to crisis management exercises shows how to build that practice, and the Ultimate Guide to Crisis Management puts these stages in the context of your whole program.
Keep Going
A few ways to go deeper if this was useful.
- Read more. Resilience, crisis management, and continuity writing at Bryghtpath Insights, or the structured Ultimate Guide to Crisis Management.
- Build or rebuild your program. Our Crisis Management services stand up the framework, the team, its decision rights, and the exercise program.
- Get a maturity score. Our Resiliency Diagnosis® is a standards-based review that produces a maturity score and a prioritized roadmap.
- Talk to us. Set up a call to think through your crisis management program with us.
