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The intersection of climate change and hurricane activity has become a focal point for scientific research and policy discussions worldwide.

While debates continue over whether climate change directly increases the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes, there is a strong consensus that global warming significantly impacts their behavior and intensity. This warming enhances hurricane dynamics by increasing ocean temperatures, which fuel stronger winds and heavier rainfall, and rising sea levels that intensify coastal flooding.

Understanding how climate change affects hurricanes and implementing robust crisis management strategies are crucial for mitigating these impacts. By strengthening business continuity plans, prioritizing employee safety, building resilient supply chains, engaging with communities, and investing in infrastructure improvements, businesses can better prepare for the increasing challenges of climate change-induced hurricanes.

Understanding Climate Change’s Impact on Hurricanes

While there’s debate about whether climate change directly causes more frequent Atlantic hurricanes, there’s a growing consensus within the scientific community that global warming affects the behavior and intensity of hurricanes. Substantial data and research back this consensus. As the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6)  highlights, Earth’s climate has warmed, with a human contribution estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.3 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s.

This warming directly influences hurricane intensity. Warmer ocean temperatures lead to faster wind speeds and heavier rainfall. Rising sea levels, attributed mainly to human activities since 1971 as per IPCC AR6, increase coastal flooding when these storms make landfall.

Warmer air holds more moisture, intensifying rainfall during tropical storms. Research suggests that climate change is likely playing a role in the frequency and severity of these “rapid intensification events,” posing a more significant threat because they give communities less time to prepare for impact. The study, which focused on 1982 and 2017, underscores a possible correlation between human-caused climate change and hurricane intensification. Climate model projections further support this.

While the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic might not necessarily be increasing over a century-long scale, research published in Nature in 2021 highlights a lack of conclusive evidence about long-term trends. However, research emphasizes that warmer ocean temperatures and higher moisture content contribute to an overall increase in hurricane intensities. This is according to modeling projections under a 2-degree Celsius global warming scenario.

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How Climate Change Affects Hurricane Impacts

It’s crucial to understand the multi-faceted effects of climate change on hurricanes:

  • Increased Intensity: As the climate warms, oceans absorb more heat. Warmer sea surface temperatures create more powerful hurricanes with stronger wind speeds. Scientists project a rise in the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, as highlighted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s research.
  • Rapid Intensification: Research, like the study published in Nature in 2019, suggests climate change may also be accelerating hurricane intensification. This gives coastal communities less warning and preparation time
  • Heavier Rainfall: Warmer air carries more moisture, significantly increasing rainfall during hurricanes. This results in more extensive flooding inland and worsens overall damage.
  • Higher Storm Surge: Sea level rise, driven by melting ice and the thermal expansion of water, exacerbates storm surges. Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea level during a hurricane, causing more destructive flooding in coastal regions.
  • Slower Hurricane Speeds: Recent research indicates that hurricanes travel more slowly, possibly linked to climate change influencing wind patterns. As per a 2019 study, slower-moving hurricanes unleash even more rain on impacted regions and prolong destructive winds. These stalled storms amplify damage.

Crisis Management in the Era of Climate Change Hurricanes

The business world must be prepared. Crisis management needs a shift to accommodate the increasing intensity of climate change hurricanes. Businesses need to take steps to prepare for the impacts of tropical cyclones.

Strengthening Business Continuity Plans

Effective business continuity plans are crucial. First, identify your company’s most vital functions and map their dependencies. Then, assess those functions’ vulnerabilities to hurricane-related disruptions, such as power outages, flooding, and supply chain interruptions. With nearly 50 million homes and $1.4 trillion in assets near US coasts, business interruption has widespread impacts.

Once you know what’s vulnerable, you can create procedures to address these threats. These procedures can include emergency response protocols and data backup systems. You may even need procedures for relocating operations and securing physical assets.

Employee Safety

It is vital to remember that employee safety must be a top priority during hurricanes. Designate emergency coordinators at each facility and ensure all personnel understand emergency procedures. Also, communication systems should be implemented before, during, and after the storm.

Building a Resilient Supply Chain

Businesses should diversify their suppliers to build a stronger supply chain. When choosing suppliers, consider factors like location and vulnerability to hurricanes. You should have backup suppliers in different geographical regions who can take over if your primary source is hit by a storm.

Invest in supply chain visibility. Understanding the location of materials and products in real time enables quicker responses to disruptions.

Community Engagement

Strong community relations are an essential factor in business continuity. Building and sustaining good relationships with community leaders, emergency responders, and local organizations is key for companies. Such connections allow for collaboration and mutual aid during crisis response and recovery.

Investing in Infrastructure Improvements

Companies operating in hurricane-prone areas must invest in upgrading facilities to enhance resilience against potential hazards. These hazards can include strong winds, flooding, and power outages. Structural reinforcements, elevation adjustments, and flood-proofing can go a long way.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the impact of climate change on hurricane intensity and behavior is becoming increasingly evident through scientific research and empirical data. The rise in global temperatures, primarily driven by human activities, has led to warmer ocean waters and higher atmospheric moisture levels, which contribute to more powerful and destructive hurricanes. While the frequency of these storms may not have significantly increased over the long term, their intensity and the potential for rapid intensification events pose severe risks to coastal communities. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for preparing and mitigating the adverse effects of hurricanes, as underscored by the findings of the IPCC and other leading research institutions.

Effective crisis management and adaptation strategies are essential to address the growing threat of climate change-induced hurricanes. Businesses must strengthen their continuity plans, prioritize employee safety, build resilient supply chains, and invest in infrastructure improvements to enhance their resilience against these natural disasters. Additionally, fostering strong community relations and engaging in collaborative efforts with local leaders and emergency responders can significantly bolster crisis response and recovery. By taking proactive measures and integrating climate resilience into their operations, businesses and communities can better withstand the increasing challenges posed by more intense and unpredictable hurricanes in the future.

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About Marie Strawser

Marie Strawser brings more than two decades of experience in business continuity, disaster recovery, and crisis management to her role as a Principal at Bryghtpath.

Prior to joining Bryghtpath, Marie spent more than twenty years in various business continuity leadership roles for companies like Ameriprise Financial, Target, and US Bank. She began her career at Ernst & Young, where she served as a Senior Advisor on their risk practice team designing and implementing business continuity and crisis management programs.

Marie is the co-founder of the Upper Midwest Security Alliance (UMSA) and presently serves as their managing director. UMSA is a non-profit organization that holds the Secure 360 conference, a regional multi-disciplinary security conference spanning information security, physical security, business continuity, and audit. Secure 360 has been held annually in the Twin Cities since 2006.